Saturday, April 05, 2008

Petrol/Gasoline Prices Myth?

Striking headline "Petrol price might up to MYR3 or more, if uplift subsidies".

Let me see, current commercial petrol prices in Malaysia are:

PENINSULAR MALAYSIA

RON97 RM1.92 per liter
RON92 RM1.88 per liter

Note: RM = Ringgit Malaysia, same with MYR, Malaysia Ringgit

Compared with gasoline price in the U.S. around USD3.2 per gallon.

Note:
1 gallon is equivalent to 3.8 liters
USD1 is equivalent to MYR3.2

Roughly, the adjusted petrol price will be (USD3.2 * 3.3) / 3.8 = MYR2.78 per liter

The abovementioned price of adjusted petrol price of MYR3 per liter is actually based on the outdated currency conversion rate of nearly USD1 to MYR3.8

What the hell!

Then, assuming the subsidy at the moment is (Actual Price - Retail Price) = MYR2.78 - MYR1.92 for RON97 petrol price, so the government is subsidiazing a MYR0.86 per liter or that is about 30 percent of the unsubsidized price.

Petronas Pretax Profit was MYR76.3 Billion, after tax around MYR46 Billion
Government received tax from Petronas was MYR21 Billion
Population in Malaysia is around 25 Million as of consensus in 2007.
Subsidized petrol price per liter is MYR0.86

Now if everyone in Malaysia spend exactly 3 liters of petrol everyday, the total subsidized amount is (25,000,000 * 365 * 3 * 0.86) approx. MYR23 Billion.

Petronas is drilling holes on our own nation grounds and it is totally reasonable to "refund" our people half of the net profit it gained.

I totally agreed that the country developments could be expedited if the subsidies uplifted. Still, I demand a transparent fund allocation of the savings and constant evaluation of fund usages. I remembered that our current P.M. promised development of better public transportation system when they announced to increment the price to MYR1.92. Have we seen it yet?

I'm totally so frustrated with the fact that crony capitalism is still blooming in Malaysia. I suggest that every public servant must declare their assets and conflicts of personal and pecuniary interests. These declarations should be printed out as flyers and give it out to the public. Those that caught violated with the code of ethics or legal conducts must severely punish.

Introduction of RON95 type of petrol.

Again, please quantify the actual subsidy distribution. If RON95 price is consistent with current RON97 of MYR1.92, then the adjusted RON97 price to RM2.78 is basically a day light robbing from the middle class society.

In relation to capital market, such adjustment to petrol price would causes immediate detrimental impact to macroeconomic variables and company fundamental of particular sectors. For others, medium to long term effects shall be visualized.

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